Brandon Saad - Would an offer sheet really work?

Brandon Saad - Would an offer sheet really work?

Brandon Saad is currently pulling up trees in the Stanley Cup Final against the Tampa Bay Lightning and helping them to tie the series 2-2 after four games. It has been documented many times that the Penguins missed the chance to draft the Pittsburgh born native and went for Jordan Morrow instead, which turned out well. But that is all hindsight. Since then, though  Saad hasn't looked back and has become a key part of the Blackhawks powerhouse as they look to get their 3rd Stanley Cup in 6 seasons.

Next season the cap isn't projected to change much, if at all, and this means Chicago is going to be right up against before they re-sign players. Right now they are spending $64,045m and have $4.954m in cap space. With 11 up for contract negotiations this summer there will be a lot of work going on once the finals are complete.

Brandon Saad is those aforementioned players. He is a restricted free agent this summer with his entry level contract expiring. His current cap hit is $764,166k and he will be in line for a hefty raise after his performances. His name has been mentioned a lot in the media as a potential target for the Penguins. No doubt due to his connections.

I think some sense of perspective needs to be taken before entertaining the thought of Saad swapping the Windy City for the Steel City. Firstly, why would he make that move? He is currently the part of a strong Chicago team that is going to compete regularly for the Stanley Cup for one that is having to restructure itself. It doesn't make sense. Sure, Chicago might have to let Sharp go next season, but they've already got a ready made, cheaper, replacement in Panarin. They aren't going away and are more likely to go farther than Pittsburgh.

Secondly, could the Penguins could even get him? With restricted free agents you can make an offer sheet, but they're not often done. Seen as a thing that GM's just don't do. The Penguins traded away their first round pick this year, which affects their chances of getting him greatly. There are only three realistic options if the Penguins offered a contract;

AAV (Annual Average Value) - Cost

Less than $1,205,377 - Nothing

$1,205,377 to $1,826,328 - Third round pick

$3,652,659 to $5,478,986 - First and Third round pick

Looking at the first two you can see two glaringly easy options for Chicago to match. Any team that offers $1,826,328 or less is helping Chicago as they will easily match that and save money that they can use elsewhere. So, for Pittsburgh, those two options are ruled out. This brings us onto the third option. Whilst this is a possible option, it is just as unlikely to happen. 

Chicago will likely let at least two of Versteeg, Bickell and Sharp go. The first two are more likely. Doing so would gain them $6.2m in cap space which they could then use to retain Saad. For anyone to have a chance offer sheeting him they would have to offer more than $5,478,986 and at that point you're looking at a First, Second and Third. At that point I believe that would be an over-payment.

In conclusion. Realistically, the Penguins don't realistically have a chance of getting an offer sheet through on Saad. Should they try? They could, but there wouldn't be much point as they would just be wasting their time. Any offer below $4.9m would be matched instantly. The Penguins will have to just rue the fact they didn't draft him and look for other targets.

P.S: Thanks to General Fanager for the Offer Sheet figures.