Matt Beleskey - Overvalued?

Matt Beleskey - Overvalued?

Right now Matt Beleskey is the hottest player in the free agency pool. He is currently part of the Western Conference Finals Anaheim Ducks team and has five goals in 9 games. He is not a top line player but he is someone who is able to contribute and is a great depth player to have.

Beleskey had his best season as a professional player this season scoring 22 goals and 10 assists in 65 games. This is partly due to him shooting at an above % compared to his career average. He finished the season with a 15.2% compared to his career average of 9.9%.  Potentially an anomaly, potentially an upward curve in his abilities.

The biggest reservation about Beleskey would be whether he would be able to repeat this going forward as he only had two seasons where he has finished with above 20 points out of 7 seasons. It is also highly likely that his shooting % drops back to a more realistic level which would affect his production.

The problem with players having a career year before they enter the free agency market is that they're often over-playing their abilities and will end up getting paid more than they should really.

An example is David Clarkson. He had a fairly successful season with the 2012-13 Devils in the shortened season finishing with 24 points in 48 games. Before that season he had a commendable 46 points in 80 games. Based on this recent production he was coveted and Toronto ended up paying a ransom for him to the tune of $36.75m over the course of a 7 year deal. One trade and 121 games later and he is currently a shadow of his former self.

Beleskey has a CF% of 54.0% along with a GF% of 61.4% which is the same as his mark last season but this could easily be a sign of a player on a good team with a well worked system. Looking back over the past two years,  Anaheim are second in GF% (57.3%) but don't fare so well down in 18th on CF% (49.2%).

The Penguins need to be careful and assess, through the use of advanced stats and "eye tests", whether he is good enough to pursue. The reason for this is that the winning team will likely pay a high price for his services and if his production drops then it will be a hard pill to swallow another expensive contract.