Tampa v Chicago: Who will win it?

Tampa v Chicago: Who will win it?

So, the Conference finals have been settled after two games sevens and Chicago and Tampa progressed. Tampa were backstopped by Bishop to a Game 7 shutout in a 2-0 win at Madison Square Gardens. It was the first time the Rangers had lost a Game 7 at MSG. On the other coast the Blackhawks took control of the game and fired past the Anaheim Ducks 5-3 to set up a Hawks - Bolts final.

The Bolts have had a long road having faced off and beaten Detroit 4-3 in seven games in the first before ending a come-back from Montreal in the second to win in six. With their 7 games against the Rangers they have played the second most number of games of teams who advanced to the Conference finals. Behind the Rangers who went to 7 in each round.

In contrast the Hawks have had an easier route. They had to come from behind against the Predators to win the series in six but they had a much easier match-up in the second round sweeping the Wild. The Anaheim Ducks put in a great shift against the Hawks exposing their defence and putting questions at times above Crawford. However, they were strong enough to lean on  Toews and Kane to advance them to the Stanley Cup.

The Lightning have a strong forward line right now that has been lead by the Palat, Johnson and Kucherov line so far. Together they have combined for 28 of the 55 goals the Lightning have scored so far. Stamkos took a while to get going but now he is in a groove and has 14 points in his last 12 games. The Lightning's offence is strong because of their depth. They roll more than one line that is able to score which means the defence has to be spread opening chances.

The Blackhawks biggest strength is their attitude and ability to get out of a situation. It's nothing to do with luck and everything to do with skill and belief. So many times now they have been able to lean on their top players, in no part due to the superb supporting cast. A lot of teams would go behind in a series after five games and think that they are done. But not the Hawks who keep pushing and seem to find something from nowhere. Like the Lightning they too have a strong offense.

If I had to pick a weakness for each team then for the Lightning it would be inconsistency in their defence. More often than not they will put in a good shut-down performance and limit their opponent to less than 3 goals. In fact, in the 20 games they have played so far the opponent has scored less than 3 goals in 13 of them. The problem is when they have an off night they seem to let their side down. The series against the Rangers was the most expensive with 21 goals conceded compared to the 15 in the Detroit series and 13 in the Montreal series.

The biggest weakness I would have for Chicago if I had to find one would be their reliance on Keith and the situation of their defence. They have relied heavily on their top four defence after Rozsival was injured in the series against the Wild. Keith has been the main victim of increased minutes playing over 30 minutes on average in the series. This can take its toll on players and they'll be thankful for the rest period before the series starts.

My prediction for the series. I think that the Bolts will push the Hawks far and I would prefer to see them win as I think it would be great for hockey in Florida and it would be nice to see a "different" team win it. However, I think the Hawks will be too strong and win in 6.

N.B:  Information came from NHL.com article.

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Rutherford looking for a first round pick & Bylsma with the Sabres

Rutherford looking for a first round pick & Bylsma with the Sabres

So there have been two news stories relating to the Penguins that have been front page this week. The first is that general manager Jim Rutherford has been attributed to saying that he is looking to get a first round pick in this years draft. The Penguins traded their pick to the Edmonton Oilers in the deal for David Perron. Currently, the Penguins have a 2nd and picks through rounds 5-7. Not a lot.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Penguins try and get some more picks, likely in the 2nd-3rd round range. But to get a 1st round pick would be a lot when you consider that there isn't a lot that the Penguins can realistically give up to get one in the deepest draft for years.

The Penguins 2nd round pick would of course be involved but what players could they include? The Penguins have a few players that are out of contract this summer which rules them out. Bennett is a RFA but could be included with a strong likelihood of the team signing him to a contact. The Penguins could look to move the anchors of Kunitz and Scuderi and remove their large cap hits but who would want them and would they be enough to get a 1st round pick?

The only package I could see to move up would be one that involves Brandon Sutter, Beau Bennett and the 2nd. It might seem a lot to move up for but if that drafts us someone in the 20-25 range it will likely be worth it. Not to mention that there is a possibility of Sutter being replaced in the center by either Spaling or Sundqvist next year. Sundqvist is of course dependent on how his camp progresses.

Elsewhere former Penguins coach Dan Bylsma has been signed to a five year contract with the Buffalo Sabres. In complete honesty I am happy that he hasn't been left out of the game for ages and has found himself a good job but I don't think he is the best candidate for the job.

It is of course well known that the Sabres were in hard for Mike Babcock but missed out on him to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Sabres are going through their rebuild process and with Jack Eichel joining this year they look to be able to start moving up the ladder back into the playoffs.

Bylsma is the right coach to get the team up and competing but I don't believe he is the best to develop young players. You can bet that Buffalo will sign a few older players who will end up having more ice time than necessary. Craig Adams is available..

In all though it is a good move for him and tests him at a new level. The Penguins also receive a third round pick in 2016 for compensation as he was still under contract. Good luck to him.

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It will take something special to top the Chicago-Anaheim series

It will take something special to top the Chicago-Anaheim series

I had originally planned to write a piece on Rutherford pursuing a first round pick in this years draft but after doing some general reading I decided to delay that. With Beleskey scoring an early OT goal last night the series swung back in Anaheim's favour, 3-2, with them heading to Chicago for game six.

This series has had it all, late goals, poor goals, penalties, high scoring games, low scoring games. Everything. This series is going to most likely be the best series of the playoffs, unless the Stanley Cup produces something remarkable. Each game has been an incredible roller-coaster between two teams looking to go the extra mile.

Why has this series been so good? Well, it's got goals. Something which the Penguins v Rangers and Capitals v Rangers series lacked. There's a pattern there isn't there? So far there has been 23 goals in the 5 games which is behind the Tampa v Rangers series but still a high proportion compared to other series at the same point.

The two teams have also been lead by their star players. Toews especially has come up with some timely goals and has continued his clutch ability. On the other side Getzlaf has made a new Anaheim Ducks points record and looks to be in form. The Ducks have also been helped by a strong post season from Beleskey who has being playing lights out and will be getting a big contract this season.

The goal tenders have also been good to watch despite having two high scoring games. Mostly due to the ridiculously long overtime games which saw 118 and 91 shots in total. That is a big workload to carry so in comparison, they're doing well.

I think this series will be hard to beat for a while and I see the winner of the Stanley Cup coming from it. Personally, I hope Anaheim win through and close it out in Game 6 but with Chicago you can never tell. They thrive in this type of situation.

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Petry - A replacement for Martin or Ehrhoff?

Petry - A replacement for Martin or Ehrhoff?

This summer the Penguins defense will see a lot of work. Martin and Ehrhoff are both unattached free agents. Rob Scuderi has also been one of a few players rumoured to be available for a potential buyout after management agreed it. I don't see that happening but with the likelihood of Martin and Ehrhoff leaving the Penguins will need someone to come in a take one of those roles. As good as the prospects are we need a current top four player to give them more time so they're not rushed.

Jeff Petry is the best available defenceman in my opinion. He was previously on the Edmonton Oilers before being traded to the Montreal Canadiens in 2015 for a second round pick and a conditional fifth rounder. Petry is not an openly offensive defensive player, having not scored more than 7 goals in a season. But the Penguins have Letang who is the main point of attack with, if fit, Maatta. Pouliot is also capable of adding offence. 

Petry has an average of 0.25 P/G and a 0.06 G P/G ratio. Petry has been rumoured and involved with many proposed trades with the Penguins before when Letang was struggling. That never materialised but if the Penguins did have any interest this would be their best chance of getting him.

Petry had most of an impact against the Lightning than the Senators in the first round. All his points, 2 goals and an assist came in a 4 game span. Petry is able to handle a top four role as evidenced by his ice-time at 21:15 in the regular season and 22:16 in the playoffs

Looking at the advanced stats we see that Petry had a poor CF% at 42.79% - no doubt attributable to being on a completely terrible Oilers teams for the majority of the season. A more positive stats is his 5-on-5 SV% at .919%. Lastly, Petry was fourth on the Canadiens drawing 0.57 minor penalties per 60 minutes. On the Penguins he would have been placed 6th.

Looking at the above I think his numbers a bit hit and miss and his contract is greater than what he will really be playing like. With a low number of top end defenceman available he will likely be able to command $4.5m+. I don't think the Penguins should entertain an offer like that. He has low production, doesn't draw as many penalties as you would like and has his on ice stats point to other issues. 

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Jiri Tlusty - A potential depth player?

Jiri Tlusty - A potential depth player?

Jiri Tlusty is an unattached free agent this summer after being traded to the Winnipeg Jets at the trade deadline from Carolina for a third round pick in 2016 and a conditional sixth round pick in 2015. Tlusty was a consistent performer on the  Hurricanes, a team which has struggled for offense. He carried over his production to the Jets this season.

In his final three seasons he played 168 games for the Hurricanes and scored 52 goals and 91 points. That totals a 0.54 PPG and a G/PG ratio of 0.30. When you consider the supporting cast that has attempted to produce in Rayleigh those are decent numbers. In his brief stint at Winnipeg he put up 8 points in 20 games.

To show Tlusty's importance to the Hurricanes it is worth looking at how many goals he was involved in proportionally last season. He scored 23 points in 52 games in the 2014-15 season. The Hurricanes scored 188 goals this season which means that Tlusty was involved in 12.23% of their goals. Had he played the whole season he would have, going by his season pace, finished with 36 points which would have put him fourth on the team.

In terms of his on ice statistics he had a good season in terms of possesion. He had a 54.1% Corsi which has continually improved season on season since 09-10. This is a good indication of a possession player who is able to keep the puck and contribute to generate chances, something the Penguins need in their top 9.

One problem with Tlusty is that he doesn't have much play-off experience and was held pointless in the four games that he played this year in the series against the Anaheim Ducks. That could be partly attributed to the Ducks being able to dominate the Jets though and the sweep is evidence of that.

In terms of salary he would be one of the cheaper options available. He is currently on a $2.95m a year contract. I don't believe he would ask for a rise and would be able to sign for a similar amount. The biggest issue is if he can continue his production with better line-mates. Going by logic he should but then hockey can be a funny sport. I believe he would be less of a risk than Beleskey and could add some good offensive depth to the team.

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Matt Beleskey - Overvalued?

Matt Beleskey - Overvalued?

Right now Matt Beleskey is the hottest player in the free agency pool. He is currently part of the Western Conference Finals Anaheim Ducks team and has five goals in 9 games. He is not a top line player but he is someone who is able to contribute and is a great depth player to have.

Beleskey had his best season as a professional player this season scoring 22 goals and 10 assists in 65 games. This is partly due to him shooting at an above % compared to his career average. He finished the season with a 15.2% compared to his career average of 9.9%.  Potentially an anomaly, potentially an upward curve in his abilities.

The biggest reservation about Beleskey would be whether he would be able to repeat this going forward as he only had two seasons where he has finished with above 20 points out of 7 seasons. It is also highly likely that his shooting % drops back to a more realistic level which would affect his production.

The problem with players having a career year before they enter the free agency market is that they're often over-playing their abilities and will end up getting paid more than they should really.

An example is David Clarkson. He had a fairly successful season with the 2012-13 Devils in the shortened season finishing with 24 points in 48 games. Before that season he had a commendable 46 points in 80 games. Based on this recent production he was coveted and Toronto ended up paying a ransom for him to the tune of $36.75m over the course of a 7 year deal. One trade and 121 games later and he is currently a shadow of his former self.

Beleskey has a CF% of 54.0% along with a GF% of 61.4% which is the same as his mark last season but this could easily be a sign of a player on a good team with a well worked system. Looking back over the past two years,  Anaheim are second in GF% (57.3%) but don't fare so well down in 18th on CF% (49.2%).

The Penguins need to be careful and assess, through the use of advanced stats and "eye tests", whether he is good enough to pursue. The reason for this is that the winning team will likely pay a high price for his services and if his production drops then it will be a hard pill to swallow another expensive contract.

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Auston Matthews to Switzerland will be a good choice

Auston Matthews going to Switzerland would be a good choice

There have been rumours this week that Auston Matthews the top rated prospect for the 2016 NHL Draft is going to sign in the Swiss National League. Traditionally American prospects either go through the Canadian Hockey League or the National Collegiate Association. Matthews choosing to go to Europe opens up another possibility that more players may choose to take in the future. This is a good choice to make for Matthews.

Matthews scored 116 points for the United States National U-18 team in the USDP. With such a dominance there is a debate to made that he wouldn't learn anything that could develop his game to prepare him for the NHL by going through the CHL route. He would playing with other junior players but he would not be pushed as a player. This is not to mention the amount of attention he would have from the media compared to the other routes.

There is an option for him to go through the NCAA route but they don't play as many games in a season as the other leagues. Look at Jack Eichel this season and you will see that he played 40 games whilst the highest in the league was on 42. The NCAA is a good route if you want to get an education whilst playing but their stance on athletes being strictly amateur isn't something I agree with.

The last option is the one that he is apparently considering. The European route. I'm surprised more players haven't tried this route in the past. He will be playing against top professional competition in the top league in Switzerland. He will also be earning a lot more than what he would get by either the CHL or NCAA routes. I'm not saying he should choose it because of the finances though. That would be very short-sighted. I believe that going this route would prepare him for the NHL more by helping him adapt to the adult game quicker.

I have seen some people mention that doing such a move could affect his draft stock but I don't believe it will. Even if he doesn't light up the league he will still be a top prospect in next years draft due to his ability and skill set that he already has. If he does well then it will keep his draft stock high.

Personally, I think that Matthews should take the chance. He may not get this chance again and he will be able to develop his game in a more challenging environment whilst earning more. He can take the year to enjoy playing and adapt to the adult game before being brought over to the NHL. It will be interesting to see what he does though as it could open the option up to more players in the future.

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Assessing the 2014-15 Pittsburgh Penguins: The Management

Assessing the 2014-15 Pittsburgh Penguins: The Management

This season was the biggest in a while for the  Penguins and going into it they had just changed their General Manager and Coach. Mike Johnston was a coach plucked from the junior Western Hockey League and had no top league experience but the hierarchy put faith in him. On the other side Jim Rutherford is one of the most experienced people in the league having played a large number of NHL games and been involved heavily with the Carolina Hurricanes recently through their Stanley Cup run.

Rutherford made his mark early in the season when he traded at the draft for Nick Spaling and Patric Hornqvist from Nashville in exchange for James Neal. At the time it seemed like a rough deal but over time it has become a good move as it has enabled us to get depth. Hornqvist has also been a more productive player this season. In terms of signing free agents Rutherford was also generally quite good. Downie and Comeau were excellent, low cap signings. The Ehrhoff signing didn't work out as it was hoped but that was mostly due to injuries.

Over the course of the season I would say Rutherford had a generally positive result on the team with the only real downside being the Lovejoy for Despres trade. It is something that I still can't understand but it is what it is. Outside of that trade, he has done well strengthening both the top and bottom six. It would be nice to have more picks in the draft but that is a legacy mostly of the previous regime.

The biggest mark against the Penguins this season was their cap management. In the past Jason Botterill was the cap cruncher and he was a great asset to have as he seemed to be able to squeeze every dollar out of the cap. He is still at the club but this season the Penguins encountered problems which meant that near the end of the regular season they had to dress four or five defence in some games.

This is something that has lingered from the Ray Shero era as well with one or two signings which, in hindsight, now look terrible. Those being the Scuderi and Kunitz cap hits. The Penguins will need to address this issue in the off-season but luckily they have a fair chunk of cap space coming thanks to a large number of their players up for free agency.

In terms of coaching, I think Johnston has done well considering the injuries the Penguins faced throughout the season. Also, for his first season as a professional coach, he hasn't done terribly. 98 points is nothing to be disappointed about. The style of hockey wasn't that great though. The Penguins needed a more defensive and structured coach but the offensive production appears to have suffered. Evident in Crosby and Malkin.

Johnston had some issues though, mostly his use of line matching which seemed to be completely random. He also favoured Craig Adams for three quarters of the season. Chris Kunitz seemed immune to being dropped to the third line, where he really belonged after strings of poor performances. His composition of special teams was also an issue which saw an impotent power play.

All in all. I think the management did okay.  Not great but they could easily do better. The things that need fixing can be fixed over the summer. It remains to be seen whether they're aware of what is needed or if they maintain the status quo.

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Assessing the 2014-15 Pittsburgh Penguins: Part 3 - The Top Six

Assessing the 2014-15 Pittsburgh Penguins:  Part 3 - The Top Six

Following on from the previous post that concerned the bottom six I have compiled my thoughts on the top six. The top six was affected by injuries throughout the season but has been improved I feel since last season with the acquisition of Perron and Hornqvist. Crosby had a tough year but I think he will rebound next year. Malkin didn't have a great year either and slumped at the end of the season but was later revealed to be injured.

One of the first players I'm going to talk about is Blake Comeau who was a cheap off-season acquisition from the free agency pool last season. Comeau had dropped off a cliff in terms of production since his Islanders day and it was a risky pick-up. It paid off though as Comeau had his best season since 2010-11. Comeau struggled in the play-offs though with 1 point in 5 games and I think he is more a third line player with the ability to fill in the top six were needed. If the Penguins can bring someone in to place into the top six then he should be knocked down to the third line.

In the centre of the second line is Malkin. Malkin had an up and down season where he went on strong stretches which were contrasted by a huge slump at the end which went into the play-offs. Despite his struggles he still finished with an above PPG pace with 70 points in 69 games. He closed the season out with a sprained ankle and it was evident as he went 5 play-off games and the last 5 regular season games pointless. I think this season was a rough one for Malkin, he will be fine when fully fit.

Two players with brief appearances in the top six were Pascal Dupuis and Beau Bennett. Dupuis played the first 16 games of the season before being ruled out with a blood clot on his lung which is far to serious to play with. He has been out for the whole season and secretly hoped to return if the Penguins made a run in the play-offs.

Beau Bennett has also suffered at the hands of the injury gods this season in someone that is a sad recurrence for him. Bennett's development has been really hampered by the constant injuries such as bone breaks and tweaks. Despite this Bennett managed to play 49 games this season which was a personal best for him. His offensive production hasn't materialised and I wouldn't be surprised to see him released at the end of the play-offs.

Next is a player acquired mid-season in David Perron. Perron started out well with 5 goals in his first 6 games. A potential sign of things to come. But he had two big blank spells of 7 and 12 games where he was kept of the score sheet which highlights a potential for inconsistency in his play. Perron worked well with Crosby and I think he should be given until January next season at least. James Neal struggled in his first season with the Penguins but flourished after. Perron has a wicked shot and it is something that Crosby will enjoy exploiting.

On the other side is Patric Hornqvist who was part of the trade that involved Spaling moving from Nashville. Hornqvist had his second best season finishing with 25 goals and 26 points in just 64 games. Hornqvist is a player who has jelled well with Crosby after being given time to settle and build some chemistry. Hornqvist has a lethal shot and shot at 11.4% this season, just under 2% higher than his career average. Hornqvist is a great asset and I look forward to another strong season from him.

The last winger in the top six was Chris Kunitz. Kunitz's production has dropped since last season. Going from 68 points last season to just 40 this season. Kunitz was slated to have suffered from Iron deficiency late in the season but if that was the case then he should have been rested. The most notable change when watching is that Kunitz doesn't crash the net or go to the boards like he used to which makes it easier for the defence to clear the puck. I wouldn't be disappointed to see Kunitz traded.

Last up is the main man, Sidney Crosby. Crosby had a down year and will be keen to bounce back next year. Currently, he is at the World Hockey Championships in Prague and is showing his hunger in some dominating performances. Crosby struggled throughout the season from a recurring injury during the festive period which curtailed his strong, favoured, shooting hand.  He also suffered from a large number of injuries to his line-mates. The drop in quality was obvious some nights. I wouldn't be too worried about Crosby's below par season but if the next starts of slow, then it would be cause for concern.

My next and final piece on the 2014-15 Penguins will look at the management and coaching team.

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