The Art Ross Trophy race is heating up - Who will win it?

The Art Ross Trophy race is heating up - Who will win it?

The Art Ross Trophy is a prestigious trophy that is at the top of the individual awards list for players in the  NHL alongside the Rocket Richard Trophy and the Vezina. Every season there is a battle to win it and this season is no different, if a bit tougher to predict. Last season Crosby won it handedly with a 17 point gap between him and second placed Ryan Getzlaf.

This season Crosby has struggled to produce at the rate he is more used to and a rate that we have become accustomed to. This has often led to the Art Ross trophy race being wide open with several players coming into play throughout the season. At the current time of writing there are five points between the players in 1st and 5th. This leaves it wide open to predictions and guesses as to who will win. The premise of this article is based around that and I'm going to put my neck on the line and give my own predictions.

John Tavares is in 1st with 72 points in 68 games and the most impressive thing about this is that he has achieved this without his regular line-mate, Kyle Okposo, who was sidelined with an eye injury. Okposo returns tonight against the Rangers and this could propel Tavares into the stratosphere and beyond his current 1.06 P/G pace. This pace sustained throughout the rest of the season would see him finish on 89 points. Tavares has benefited some what in that he hasn't missed any games this season.

In second currently is Alexander Ovechkin on 69 points through 66 games for a pace of 1.05 P/G. Ovechkin has dominated this season in terms of goalscoring and is the leader with 44 goals, six ahead of second placed Rick Nash. Ovechkin is on pace to finish with 85 points but he has benefited from increased production from his common partner, Nicklas Backstrom who is 3rd with 69 points in 67 games for a 1.03 P/G pace. He is currently on pace to break his last seasons total of 79 points in 82 and is on pace for his best full-season since the 2009-10 season. The Capitals duo have benefited massively from a dominant powerplay which is 2nd at a 24.9% rate.

Next up in 4th and 5th place are the Penguins duo of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby. Malkin has been on a tear recently and is currently at 67 points in 61 games for a 1.10 P/G pace which is the best in the league right now. Malkin has had a number of different wingers throughout the season and has managed to produce despite the constant change on his wings. Currently his pace would put him on 85 points. Meanwhile, on the top line, Crosby has been battling to keep in touch with a below par season so far.  Currently he is on pace to have his worst full season with a finish of 84 his projected finish. However, if anyone can put a burst on, it is Crosby.

Now, my predictions. I believe that Tavares will benefit from getting Okposo back and continue to score points at a heavy rate. However, they have to do a two game swing against the Los Angeles Kings and the Anaheim Ducks in a Californian swing. Outside of that they have nine home games compared to five away games and I think home crowd support will him on to push. I see Tavares finishing on 88 points. 

Next and on to Ovechkin and Backstrom. There is no doubt that Ovechkin will continue to score goals but the Capitals have three games against the Rangers coming up and they are one of Ovie's harder teams to score on in the East. You can be sure that if Ovechkin scores then Backstrom will likely have a part to play in it. Based on their schedule and how they have played so far this season I see Ovechkin finishing on 84 points and  Backstrom on 81.

Lastly, Malkin and Crosby. Malkin and Crosby have both upped their play recently and with possibly the easiest schedule out of the three teams represented in the top 5 I think they will benefit most. However, I think that with two players going for the title will be detrimental affect and slightly pull down their totals. The Penguins schedule is split 8-8 home and away and I don't believe this gives either player the edge as Malkin has been more prolific at home with Crosby away. With the improvement in the teams play as a whole in recent weeks as demonstrated in the Californian road trip I think we'll see a determined effort. I predict that Malkin will finish with 86 points and Crosby with 87.

Although I'd love to see Crosby or Malkin win the Art Ross I'm avoiding being biased and going with my gut feeling of John Tavares. He has deserved this season and with a five point gap I think he won't look back. Crosby and Malkin will close that gap with their games in hand but I think it will be too much and he'll be crowned the Art Ross winner for 2015.