A statistical look at the Hornqvist (+ Spaling) for Neal trade so far

A statistical look at the Hornqvist (+Spaling) for Neal trade so far

One of the biggest moves in the summer was no doubt the trade of James Neal to Nashville for Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling. It happened during the 2014 NHL draft and created a stir and some strong debate about whether it was a good trade by Pittsburgh or not. Now, 7 months after the trade and over half-way into the season I think we can start to look at how it is going so far and start to compare. 

One of the sticking points for Penguins fans was that they would lose the chemistry and scoring ability that Neal had when paired with Evgeni Malkin, specifically on the PP where 37.7% of his points came from. With a percentage as high as that it is no surprise to know that Neal was the Penguins third most productive player on the PP in terms of points and second in terms of shots per 60 minutes (16.91 to Malkin's 17.89) on the man advantage. 

The biggest problem with Neal was that he would go missing in the play-offs and struggle due to the increased physicality which saw a reduction in penalties called. That is actually a misconception though as his on 5v5 ES his production grows from 70% in the regular season to 71.4% in the play-offs. 

The one other thing that appeared to stick with Penguins fans was his frequency to take poor penalties and in his 38 games with the Penguins in the play-offs he commited to 50 PIM's. At 1.31PIM's a game for a player that is meant to be on the top six is too much as it makes harder for him to be effective in such important games. It is worth comparing him through the same time period from 2010-2014 to the other two key players on the Penguins. Crosby had 22 PIM's in 33 games and Malkin with 40 PIM's in 34 games. Both are lower than Neal.

The main reason I think that Neal was traded was that a change in the culture of the club was needed which followed after Bylsma and Shero's firings. Rutherford wanted to make his own mark and change the way the team played and one of the ways to do it was to trade one of the most valuable players. Hornqvist was brought in to replace Neal and add more of an all round game aside from just the pure goalscoring. Spaling was if anything a sweetner and added some depth scoring which the Penguins had struggled with in the past thanks to poor roster decisions and system employment.

Looking at the above we can see that last season Hornqvist had a much greater net presence than James Neal with a higher proportion of shots near the blue paint. These are typified by the dark green hexes, the darker the better. Hornqvist had 248 shots last year which is 10 more than Neal's 238 so the Penguins to pick up a player who has been shooting more than Neal recently and also been getting into the goalkeepers kitchen.

Looking now at this season and seeing how they're doing we can see that Hornqvist has 29 points in 33 games of which he has scored 13 goals. Comparatively Neal has 27 points in 37 games of which he has scored 15 goals.  Hornqvist was also brought in to replace Neal on the PP and we can see that so far Hornqvist has 9 points in his time this season which totals for 27.2% of his production compared to 37% for  Neal last season.

However whilst there has been a reduction in the powerplay activity this can be put down to a reduction in time for Hornqvist due to injury. There is also the fact that Neal only played 59 games last year, with a larger number of games that number could very well have been reduced. The Penguins powerplay last year as 23.4% compared to the same number right now however the Penguins have had some serious injury issues to their forward core so for it to be that high is surprising. With a fully fit roster I would expect that to be higher.

All in all I think that the trade works for both teams but helps Pittsburgh more due to Hornqvist being a more rounded player which will help more in the play-offs. We'll find out whether he will disappear like Neal in April but so far it seems to be working for both parties. When you consider that the Penguins also obtained Spaling to add to their depth you could argue that in terms of production the Penguins won but for the teams needs both got what they wanted. I'll do a complete review at the end of the play-offs.